An equation that was first developed in the 1980s and has been primarily used to aid traders foretellstock market activitycan also be used to omen when coronavirus cases will reach their visor in different countries , according to a new study in the journalFrontiers in Physics .
acknowledge as q - statistics , the tool is credited to Constantino Tsallis , who work on the formula as a means of describing the behavior of complex systems – which let in everything from high-pitched - frequency financial transactions to mediaeval trading networks , and , it seems , spherical pandemic .
For decades , the equation has been used to produce graph that describe the probability ofstock exchanges . However , Tsallis says that after seeing a graph portray day-to-day coronavirus cases in China , he immediately acknowledge a striking law of similarity between these and the figures used by financial monger .
“ The build was precisely the same , ” he explained in astatement .
By applying q - statistic to data from China , where the pandemic is generally considered to have passed its peak , Tsallis and his workfellow Ugur Tirnakli developed a chemical formula which they then applied to a bit of other severely affect countries , including the US , the UK , Italy , and Brazil .
In their write - up , they explain how this allowed them to accurately auspicate the tip escort for daily typesetter’s case and end in each country , right to within one calendar week .
" The functional form seems to be universal , " say Tallis . " Not just for this computer virus , but for the next one that might appear as well . " The deduction here is that by utilizing q - statistics it may be possible to pre - empt the spread of futurepandemics , thereby give health officials a head commence in their endeavour to acquaint policy to protect populations .
The authors note that while their rule did also predict the severity of the peak in each nation , this was less precise than their forecasting of the engagement . This , they say , is probably because some countries employed more successful public wellness scheme than others , with the effectiveness of societal distancing regulation accept a significant effect on the telephone number of masses infected in each country .
Interestingly , they also direct out that South Korea was the only country for which their equation did not work , indicating that their tool may need some fine - tuning before it can be totally rely upon to map the spread of any next pandemic .
It is also widely accepted that official statistic in each country are likely to be inaccurate as huge number of cases go unreported , and the study authors acknowledge that this also casts a shadow of doubt over their findings .
